Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Orange wave hits Mississauga

Mississauga Willy reporting in.

For those of you who are not familiar with the political landscape of Hazels hideaway, here is the history. Mississauga has four ridings and for the most part, or at least while I have lived here they have been predominantly red, with a tinge of blue provincially, when Harris took over.

In 2008 the city got hit with Harpers blue wave and one seat fell to a conservative candidate, for a lack of a better word. Close but it fell.

According to Democracy Watch, you know the strategic voting guys, at the outset of the election there were two Mississauga ridings in play, where vote splitting would let the Conservatives hold on to one very closely contested riding, Mississauga Erindale and gain one seat in Mississauga South.

They have been adding the fluctuating poll results and the projections have been moving up and down for each riding based on the daily results from two pollsters (EKOS and NANOS) and it has been close.

The Orange wave started to take permanent affect on the April 24th polls in Mississauga and as you can see from chart below the intent to vote NDP has increased by 10% since the last election. The intent to vote Liberal or Green has fallen, 5% and 24% respectively and the intent to vote conservative has increased 5%.

Currently Harper is leading in two ridings, with the NDP surge possibly having a greater effect in the Mississauga South riding. I believe the conservative rise is coming from the collapse of the Greens and worried blue grits, usually the wealthier of the group, who by the way live in Mississauga South by the lake. They might be believing what the corporate media is saying and are afraid of the socialist NDP, as CTV is now regularly calling Jack and crew (4 times in 5 minutes tonight BTW).

To offer some hope that Harper doesn't gain another seat in Mississauga, these Democracy Watch riding projections are not showing any measurable increase in the number of voters for this election. If the advance polls were any indication in Mississauga we could see another 7,000 votes cast.

If the majority of those additional votes are for the NDP, Harper gains another seat in Mississauga, if they are sleeping liberals, he might loose Mississauga Erindale for no net gain.

I think Mississauga South is lost in either case.

That's all, party on dudes.

PS: I am no Steve V when it come to polls and the only one that really counts hasn't happened yet.

Personally I don't care who is the Official Opposition. Hell the Bloc had their shot.

I would just rather not have to live through a Harper majority, so the rest of the country better go massively Orange because we are not doing so well in Mississauga.


Beijing York said...

Hmmm, not sure what happened to my previous comment.

Anyway, I sure hope people in the 905 vote to prevent a Harper majority. I certainly didn't see much evidence of a Conservative backlash in the Ottawa area. Hope I'm wrong.

WILLY said...

It is going to be close, Beij.

He is not liked around these parts, but who would have guessed that the big NDP national numbers would have turned focussed progressives into such blind partisans.

On both sides.